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多重影响因素叠加 抓品质与控成本成夏收关键
 

laiyuan:zhonghualiangwang

摘要:受多重因素叠加影响,今年国内主产区夏粮收购形势较为复杂,预计今年国内主产区小麦托市收购仍将启动,但启动时点以及范围仍需密切关注2020年小麦产质量情况以及市场主体之间的购销博弈。

一、2020年以来国内麦市购销

2020nianyilaiyiqing、bulitianqidengyinsuyingxiangshichangzhutixinliyuqi,jinerduiguoneigequyuxiaomailiutongshichangjieduanxinggongxugejuchanshengbutongyingxiang,raoluanxiaomaishichanggouxiaojiezou。guoneimaijiazoushisuizheliutongshichanggongxugejudejieduanxingbianhuazhengtichengxianxianyanghouyitaishi,youqishilujibufenquyumaijiajieduanxingzoushijiaoweimingxian。chiliangzhutikucunxiaomaichengbengaoqiyijiguojialinchuxiaomaipaimaidijiayidingchengdushangzhichengmaijiadibu。jutongji,2020nianyilaiguojialinchuxiaomaileijitoufangliang6616.7233wandun,shijichengjiaoliang555.3172wandun,tongbizengjia391.6704wandun;qizhongjiangsudiquleijitoufangliang1377.5373wandun,shijichengjiaoliang116.955wandun;anhuidiquleijitoufangliang1442.1775wandun,shijichengjiaoliang116.0898wandun;henandiquleijitoufang2756.4316wandun,shijichengjiaoliang222.5774wandun;shandongdiquleijitoufangliang291.2348wandun,shijichengjiaoliang47.0421wandun;hebeidiquleijitoufangliang229.7005wandun,shijichengjiaoliang52.1753wandun;hubeidiquleijitoufangliang519.6416wandun,shijichengjiaoliang0.4776wandun。guojialiangshihewuzichubeijujiagejianceshujuxianshi,jiezhi5yuezhongxun,guoneixiaomaijiagequjian2160-2640yuan/dun,pingjunjiage2372yuan/dun;xiangbizhixia,1yuechuguoneixiaomaijiagequjian2100-2540yuan/dun,pingjunjiage2319yuan/dun。

二、2019年国内主产区夏粮收购回顾

国家统计局公布的数据显示,2019年国内小麦播种面积3.45亿亩,较2018年减少628万亩,下降1.8%;但国内优质强筋弱筋小麦占比达到33%,比上年提高3.0个百分点;2019年国内夏粮小麦产量13106万吨,比2018年增加266.7万吨,增长2.1%。自2019年5月下旬国内主产区新麦自南至北陆续收获上市流通,持粮主体惜售、储备粮阶段性轮入及主产区相继启动小麦托市收购提振新麦收购价呈现高开态势。安徽地区自6月5日率先启动小麦托市收购,江苏地区自6月12日启动小麦托市收购。以粮食贸易商、面粉加工企业为代表的市场化收购主体入市较为谨慎,主产区新麦收购价呈现“北高南低”态势,但区域间麦价价差较为狭窄。随着国内产销区储备小麦轮入力度放缓加之市场化主体入市收购不给力,主产区新麦市场行情呈现弱势运行态势。河南地区自7月2日起启动小麦托市收购,湖北地区自7月11日起启动小麦托市收购,河北地区自7月19日起启动小麦托市收购;山东地区7月14日在枣庄市率先启动小麦托市收购,7月22日在济宁、菏泽启动托市,7月31日又在东营、泰安、临沂、德州、聊城、滨州启动托市,8月28日济南地区启动小麦托市收购。自8月中下旬,随着国内主产区流通市场小麦数量持续下降、托市收购持续进行以及大型面企新麦市场采购力度加大,国内主产区新麦市场价格呈现稳中偏强运行态势,但价格上行空间有限。国内新麦市场价格整体长时间围绕托市收购价附近运行,麦价波动幅度有限,小麦产质量好转加之政策调整使得国内麦价运行空间同比明显缩窄,粮食贸易商库存小麦利润空间遭受成本吞噬,甚至出现不同程度亏损。据统计,截至2019年9月30日,国内主产区小麦累计收购数量7076.2万吨,同比增加2061万吨;其中江苏收购1243.8万吨,同比增加223.1万吨;安徽收购1069.9万吨,同比增加537.4万吨;河南收购2027.3万吨,同比增加820.8万吨;山东收购1130.1万吨,同比增加202.7万吨;湖北收购161.7万吨,同比增加1.2万吨;河北收购739.7万吨,同比增加269.9万吨。据统计,2019年国内主产区小麦托市收购量2227万吨,同比大幅增加;相比之下,2018年为235.35万吨,其中江苏地区209.75万吨,安徽地区25.6万吨。国家粮食和物资储备局价格监测数据显示,截至2019年9月下旬,国内小麦价格区间2020-2630元/吨,平均价格2273元/吨;相比之下,6月初国内小麦价格区间1820-2690元/吨,平均价格2290元/吨。

三、2020年国内主产区夏收展望

4yue21riguojialiangshihewuzichubeijuzhaokaixialiangshougouzhunbeigongzuodudaodiaodushipinhuiyi,qiangdiaoduocuobingjujiejuecangrongmaodun,qianfangbaijikuodashouchunengli,laolaoshouzhunongmin“zhongliangmaidechu”dedixian。5yue15riguojialiangshihewuzichubeijufabude《guanyuqieshizuohao2020nianxiajiliangyoushougougongzuodetongzhi》zhichu,zuohaoyuanqidongzhunbeigongzuo,zuzhihaozhengcexingshougou,fahuihaotuodizuoyong;jiaqiangduishougoujindujiance,yangeanzhaoyuanguidinghetongzhiyaoqiuqidong、tingzhishougou。jutongji,jiezhi2020nian5yuexiaxun,guojialinchuxiaomaishengyukucunshuliang8731wandun,tongbizengjia1576wandun;qizhong2014-2016nianchanxiaomai4235wandun,2017nianchanxiaomai2104wandun,2018nianchanxiaomai157wandun,2019nianchanxiaomai2227wandun;congguojialinchuxiaomaizhuyaodiqukucunfenbuqingkuanglaikan,jiangsudiqu1613wandun,tongbizengjia247wandun;anhuidiqu1976wandun,tongbizengjia378wandun;henandiqu3976wandun,tongbizengjia647wandun。2019nian10yue14riguojiafagaiweigongbuguoneizhuchanqu2020nianxiaomaizuidishougoujiamei50gongjin112yuan,baochi2019nianshuipingbubian;danzi2020nianqiduizuidishougoujiaxiaomaixiandingshougouzongliang,diyipishuliangwei3330wandun,bufenpeidaosheng;dierpishuliangwei370wandun,shishougouxuyaojutifenpeidaosheng。youyuguoneizhuchanqu2020nianxiaomaituoshishougoujiayu2019nianchiping,qieyouyu2019nianzhuchanquxiaomaituoshishougouliangmingxiangaoyuhouqiguojialinchuxiaomaichengjiaoliang,zheiyiweizhejinnianguoneizhuchanquxiaomaituoshishougoumianlindecangrongyalijiaoda。kaolvdaoyiqingyingxiang、zhuchanqu2020nianxiaomaichanzhiliangbianhua、shichangzhutigouxiaoxintaiyijituoshishougoudengyinsu,jinnianguoneizhuchanquxialiangshougouxingshijiaoweifuza。2020nianzhuchanquxiaomaichanzhiliangqingkuangjianghendachengdushangyingxiangqishichangjiageyunxingkongjian,quyujiancangrong、xuqiuyijixiaomaipinzhibutonghuojiangdaozhixiaomaikuaquyuliutong。yujijinnianguoneizhuchanquxiaomaituoshishougourengjiangqidong,danqidongshidianyijiqidongfanweirengxumiqieguanzhu2020nianxiaomaichanzhiliangyijishichangzhutizhijiandegouxiaoboyiqingkuang,youxiaocangrongbuzuhuojiangzhiyuezhuchanquxiaomaituoshishougoujinduyulidu;zhengcejiayushichangjiarengjiangbingcun,xiaomaishichangmaoyiyingyizhengcejiaweicankao,qiangzhuajieduanxingshichangjihui,jiaqiangshougouhuanjieguanliyijizhiliangguankong。